Andrew W. Lo was named winner of the $10,000 Harry M. Markowitz Award for his paper, "Moore's Law Vs. Murphy's Law in the Financial System: Who's Winning?" The award was announced Thursday by the Journal of Investment Management and New Frontier Advisors in a joint statement. The paper provided examples of technology capable of adapting to the "foibles in human behavior" so users can employ all the recent breakthroughs in computing hardware and software, data analytics and telecommunications that have changed the financial industry "safely, effectively and effortlessly," according to an abstract on the paper.
מפגש מבהיל בגן החיות חשף בפני פרופ' אנדרו לוֹ את ההיגיון האבולוציוני ששולט בשוק ההון, ושלח אותו למסע שהסתיים ברב־מכר פורץ דרך. עכשיו הוא מסביר ל"כלכליסט" מהי תורת השווקים המסתגלים, איך מבדילים בין זנים שונים של משקיעים ולמה בג'ונגל הפיננסי שולט עקרון הישרדות העשירים
Murphy’s Law says that anything which can go wrong, will go wrong. Moore’s Law says that computing power will double every 18 months or so. Technology drives financial innovation and activity. Andrew Lo, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology has merged these ideas into a map of today’s financial system, a world where the speed of innovation is fast outstripping the ability of regulators to keep pace. As he told an audience of politicians at a New City Agenda event in the Palace of Westminster last month, the speed and complexity of financial markets increases by the day; human understanding does not.
As we draw closer to the 10-year anniversary of the global financial meltdown, a lot of investors seem convinced we won't be revisiting anything remotely resembling that period of extreme wealth destruction any time soon. And who can blame them? The value of their rebuilt portfolios has soared during a sustained stretch of well-below- normal interest rates, strong earnings growth, inflated asset values and record-low volatility. Bullish forecasters predict more of the same for 2018, playing down a host of potential pitfalls.
There are two popular schools of thought when it comes to how markets work. There's the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) which says that it's basically impossible to beat the market, because all information is completely priced in at all times (more or less). On the other side is an increasingly popular behavioral view which argues that various human emotions and biases are always creating situations that aren't justified by the data. On this week's episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we speak to Andrew Lo, a professor of Finance at the MIT Sloan School of Management about his own theory, which he calls Adaptive Markets. The theory attempts to bridge the behavioral approach with the efficient markets view. He argues that the proper way to view the market is through an ecological lens, examining the players as flora and fauna of a complicated system, to help determine who's thriving, who's dying, and where asset prices will go.
Legendary investor Warren Buffett once described it as a "mirage" to be avoided by any sensible investor. JP Morgan Chase chief executive Jamie Dimon has famously described it as a "fraud" and last month warned that if "you're stupid enough to buy it, you'll pay the price for it one day." Another global bank boss, Credit Suisse's Tidjane Thiam, calls the manic trading that has driven its price into the stratosphere the "very definition of a bubble" that's destined to end badly.
Andrew W. Lo is the Charles E. and Susan T. Harris Professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management and director of the MIT Laboratory for Financial Engineering. His latest book, Adaptive Markets, examines financial stability and crisis to explain how evolution shapes human behavior and the market at large. David Enrich is the Finance Editor of the New York Times. His first book, The Spider Network, unveils the story of how a math genius, a few outrageous accomplices, and a deeply corrupt banking system ignited one of the greatest financial scandals in history. Both shortlisted finalists for the 2017 Financial Times & McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award, David and Andrew recently sat down to discuss the root causes of financial scandals, and how we can nip them in the bud.
A biotech focused on developing drugs to treat genetic diseases just raised $135 million. BridgeBio Pharma, which was founded in 2015, builds out subsidiary companies around different inherited genetic diseases. The series C round was co-led by investment firms Viking Global Investors and KKR, which were joined by Perceptive Advisors, AIG, Aisling Capital, Cormorant Capital, and Janus Funds.
Our latest Freakonomics Radio episode is called “‘How Much Brain Damage Do I Have?’” John Urschel was the only player in the N.F.L. simultaneously getting a math Ph.D. at M.I.T. But after a new study came out linking football to brain damage, he abruptly retired. Here’s the inside story — and a look at how we make decisions in the face of risk versus uncertainty.